It’s Beginning to Smell a Lot Like Christmas

London has put on its holiday cologne.

I noticed it the other morning when I left for my run. A smell that hadn’t been there a few days earlier, and then was. It took me a moment to realize it was familiar and strongly associated with being in Europe over the holidays.

I’m not sure what it is. My guess is it’s the smell of home fires burning. We live in a smoke control zone, but smokeless doesn’t mean odorless.

That’s not the only sign of the holidays. Christmas tree lots have sprung up around the city, and trees of all sizes can be had at your local market. And Christmas trees are being erected and lit in public spaces and in private windows. A welcome bit of cheer.

We normally get a tree early in December. We broke with that tradition last year – we were traveling in the run-up to Christmas – and got a tree just before my sister, brother-in-law, and niece arrived for a visit. (Aside: how can something seem both mere moments ago and ancient history?)

We had an appointment on the other side of London the last day of November, and not knowing how long we’d spend in transit I had told work I’d be out all day, so when we got back, we took the attack of opportunity and got a tree.

The tree lot we found last year and liked is about a mile away – so we trundled over, picked out a suitable specimen, and for the second time had the slightly surreal experience of carrying a 2 meter tall Christmas tree down a major thoroughfare in central London to our flat.

We didn’t bring many holiday decorations when we moved, and we sorta expected to be back in Seattle before this holiday for a visit and be able to retrieve a few more. That obviously didn’t happen, but that hasn’t stopped Dawnise from sprinkling the place with Christmas.

Since we can’t go to the Christmas markets, we’re going to bring bits of them to us. We’ve bought the bits to make glühwein, and the “upgrades” to make feuerzangenbowle. Sorta surprisingly we can’t locally source individually sized zuckerhuts (sugar loaves) – and shipping from amazon.de is pretty ridiculous, so we’re going to “make do” (that’s British, right?) with some rough cut sugar cubes. They’re the wrong shape, but once the over-proof rum gets involved, the shape won’t matter.

After brunch this morning we took a stroll to Konditor and got some mince pies.

So we’ve laid in the critical bits – booze and baked sweets. I figure that should keep us, at least ’till we have to sort out Christmas dinner.

Happy Holidays. Stay healthy, stay sane, take joy where you can find it, and we hope to see you in the coming year.

Home Is Where The Cats Are…

I started to title this “Home Is Where Your Stuff Is…” It sounded good on paper, but what if you have stuff in two places?

It turns out that on reflection most of the stuff isn’t that important. If we need something we already have in Seattle, we can usually just buy another one. Yay mass production and global distribution.

The cats on the other hand… well, that’d be tricky to say the least.

Hence: “home is where the cats are.” Seems legit.

We’ve been in the new flat for just over three weeks, and overall it’s gone well. Better than we had any right to hope for, really, considering we decided to move, found a flat, and arranged movers in the span of a couple weeks.

We had to buy a dining table, which arrived a week or so back, and the rug we picked to go under it arrived Friday.

How did we do these things before the internet?

As expected from a place that’s been empty for a few months, there’s been a small punch list. Just little things that need fixing. The property management company so far is “typically British” – they do their best to ignore me and the problem until I shake their cage. I’m pretty good at being a demanding customer, and not afraid of fixing thing myself, so ultimately they’ll either they’ll fix it, or I’ll fix it and deduct the cost of repairs from rent.

Despite all that, we’ve quickly settled in. Our last flat was purpose-built as a rental. The new place was lived in by the owners, who remodeled it a handful of years ago before moving abroad (and kept and left nearly all the manuals, I love these people already). The contrast is significant – the space, the storage, and the kitchen are just that much more usable. Like someone, you know, gave a crap.

Dawnise and I agreed that despite the short time we’ve been here, it feels more like a “home” than the last place, though neither of us can quite put our finger on why.

I’ve run into our neighbors, once while they were taking their two kids to school, and once while they were going down to collect their milk delivery. We exchanged names, and I’m hoping to be more properly introduced once lock-down relaxes.

The weather recently has been what you might call “variable” – some beautiful, clear crisp days (12C/mid-50’sF), some downright chilly (2C/mid-30’sF), and occasional driving wind and rain. So far all the rain has stayed outside, which was really the point of this, after all.

This morning I walked to our favorite local cafe and picked up “take away shakshouka” for breakfast. The owner hadn’t done take away before, but decided to make a go of it this time. Chatting with her while waiting, I was happy to hear it’s been going reasonably well so far.

The same can’t be said, I’m afraid, for COVID in the UK generally. Case counts, hospitalization counts, and death rates are all still trending up, though our immediate neighborhood seems to be in reasonable shape for the moment.

These worrying trends, combined with the news last week of the efficacy of the Pfizer vaccine, suggest that continued conservatism is a sensible course. Not gathering with friends and family over this holiday season will suck, but getting sick now – while medical systems strain under the load and a vaccine is “on the horizon” – means that the “downside risk” is increasing at the same time as the “investment horizon” shortens.

If that’s all gibberish and jargon, another (intentionally provocative) way to say it is “no one wants to be the last soldier to die in Vietnam.”

Stay safe, stay healthy, stay sane.

Glad that’s over. I’m taking off my armor.

If you’re reading this, the US presidential election has been called in Joe Biden’s favor.

The office of the president will soon not be occupied by a petulant, racist, xenophobic, nepotistic, misogynistic, anti-science narcissist who seemingly can’t distinguish fact from fiction and casually and routinely incites violence against those with whom he disagrees.

As you can likely tell, I’m not a fan.

I’m happy to say we the people have narrowly avoided driving the country off the cliff … for a second time.*

So you’ll never have to read the other essay.

*exhales*

There was no “blue wave.” No landslide. No forceful repudiation of the past four years. No clear statement that the administration has been complicit in the deaths of a quarter million people from COVID-19, and that wasn’t inevitable and that it isn’t okay.

And Mitch McConnell was re-elected, which by itself takes a bunch of the luster off the rest.

But never mind. What’s done is done.

Though… terrifyingly all it took to undermine the foundations of American democracy, to torpedo America’s respect and standing on the world stage, and to roll back decades of at least the appearance of social progress was one useful idiot and the support of a set of well placed hypocritical, feckless and power-hungry party sycophants. All the while technically playing by the rules.

Trump wasn’t the problem.

Let that sit on your tongue, and in your head, for a minute.

Trump. Was. Not. The. Problem.

He took advantage of the situation, to be sure. And used his position to enrich himself and his family, to marginalize groups he didn’t like, to gaslight a country of 320 million people, to magnify and amplify the worst in us and the worst of us.

But he wasn’t the problem. At of the time of this writing, over sixty million Americans supported him, his behavior, and his policies.

And that wide spread support, that’s still not the problem.

To be clear, I don’t know what the problem is, but if we want to, we need to start by asking why.

Why did nearly half the voters think he was a better choice (for them? for the country?) than his opponent? Why did he appeal to them – what did he say or do? Why did they support his behavior, or choose to look past it if they didn’t support it?

And – here’s the hard part – we need to listen to the answers. Not discount them when we disagree. Not denigrate them – even when they’re not based in the facts and reality we recognize. Listen to understand.

And keep asking why.

Until we get to things we can agree need to be fixed.

And that’s the other hard part – we need to find ways to cooperate – across the political spectrum, across the social divide – to start fixing those things.

Because once it’s clear that it can happen here, it’s much, much more likely to happen again.

And that’s not the problem, but it surely is a problem.

* I realize that most Americans voted against driving off the cliff in 2016 – but the outcome was what it was.

And now, back to the pandemic already in progress…

By all accounts, the UK will follow the lead of Germany and France and institute a second national ‘lockdown‘ on Thursday, expected to last ‘at least a month.’ As was the case with the first lockdown, this one is likely a reasonable move being made a bit too late.

The specifics of the restrictions are still evolving. They’re being layered on an existing hodgepodge of already unclear regional restrictions, and imposed on a population struggling to dig their last few fucks out of the sofa cushions.

Most things will close, but not schools or universities – ’cause young people are sure to socially distance, and there’s been no evidence of the youth being asymptomatic spreaders.

I’m sure it’ll all go swimmingly.

I doubt we’ll be greatly affected. We’ve really only gone out to get food – ignoring the whole move house thing – and aside from brunch at our local cafe, that’s almost exclusively been from the grocery store.

I’ll go try to get a haircut this morning, and we’ll make it a point to lunch in our local cafe over the next few days, as they don’t really do takeaway and will almost certainly close for the duration.

Things have been a bit busy lately so I’ve not had as much time to read as I’d have liked, so I was pretty happy that yesterday afternoon I finished The Deficit Myth, the first I’ve read about so-called ‘modern monetary theory.’

I found it intriguing, and will plan to find and read a more rigorous treatment of the subject.

In other news, once the move was sorted out I booked the first available driving test… in late February. So I paid £10 for an app that monitors cancellations at the DVLA and helps you reschedule. I’m now scheduled for 21 December.

On the one hand, two months sooner for £10 seems like good return on investment, on the other hand it seems an odd status quo.

Test scheduling, like many other things, doesn’t actually work, and that doesn’t seem to bother anyone.

Moment of Calm

The movers came back this afternoon and retrieved the empty boxes. Aside from re-homing a few things the owners left behind, and waiting for the dining table and rug we ordered to arrive, we’re “done moving.”

I can see how with practice, and discipline to not accumulate “stuff,” one could get good at moving. I’m not convinced it’s a skill I want to develop.

So this weekend will be a time to recharge before the inevitable goat-rodeo that is the US presidential election kicks into high gear next week.

Despite being largely disconnected from social media, I’ve been fairly inundated with encouragement to vote. Usually accompanied by a specious claim that the advice giver “doesn’t care who you vote for, just that you vote.”

Of course they care. They want you to vote for who they’re voting for.

Both sides are convinced it’ll be the end of the world if “the other side” wins.

Maybe one side is right. Maybe both sides are.

So I guess I’ll add my voice to the chorus.

If you’re eligible to do so, please vote.

Vote against kakistocracy. Against the normalization of lies. Against divisiveness. Against misogyny. Against xenophobia. Against kleptocracy. Against willful ignorance and sciolism.

Just over four years ago I was in Edinburgh, struggling to come to grips with the election, and wrote this.

I wonder what I’ll be writing this time.

And when the dust will have settled enough to write it.

Don’t Wait for the Important to Become Urgent

It’s been a hell of a weekend.

Lemme me explain.

No. There is too much. Lemme sum up.

We’re moving out of our apartment. We’re not sure exactly when we’re moving, or where we’re moving to yet, but it turns out by not fixing the roof during the dry weather – when they had the chance – the building management company lost any hope of keeping this apartment habitable.

Over the rains this weekend, leaking doors and a couple dripping lights turned into heavier leaks and more leaky lights, and a few spots of wet plasterboard became many spots, growing quickly. We disassembled the “not leaking yet” former-guest-bedroom-cum-office and turned it back into a bedroom.

A roofing contractor came out yesterday (on a Sunday, so you know that cost someone a pretty penny) – looked at the interior, went out onto the terraces and climbed onto the main roof in the dumping rain, and gave us his professional opinion:

“The building needs a new roof, all this decking has to be taken up to replace the roof under it, and to do any of this, it has to be dry.”

Of course the building management couldn’t take him at his word, so today a building surveyor came out, looked at all the same stuff (but did it in the dry) and gave his professional opinion.

“The building needs a new roof, all this decking has to be taken up to replace the roof under it, and to do any of this, it has to be dry.”

It won’t be dry enough, for long enough, for months.

So it’s time for us to beat a hasty retreat.

So we’re working on figuring out where we (two humans, two cats) can go in the short term while we look for a new place. We’ll be out looking at flats tomorrow afternoon and working through the logistics of getting our selves and our belongings moved out of an increasingly leaky flat. And figuring out who’s going to pay for it (hint: not us).

The owner of the apartment wil be left with an empty, decaying apartment. And unless they can find a way to at least stabalize the roof and contain water once we leave, the water will undoubetdly affect the units below us.

They’ve turned a medium sized problem into a huge problem by ignoring it.

Fixing the roof was important over the summer, but it wasn’t urgent. The pandemic certainly didn’t make roof work easy, but the building sites in view of our apartment kept working through most of the summer, so it was possible.

Now, thanks to waiting for the bad weather to return, fixing the roof is urgent and has become effectively impossible.

If this were my property, and I was a customer of the building management firm, I’d be lawyering up.

But it’s not my property, so my goal is to extricate us from this accelerating fluster-cluck.

Stay tuned.

It’s Raining in the Bedroom (there are no points for effort)

Our apartment is on the 5th and 6th floors of the building. Our kitchen and living space are directly under the building roof, and our bedrooms are under exterior terraces.

Last year, as the fall rains started, we had a couple leaks in the roof, including one that had water dripping out of an electric light fixture. We contacted the property manager, given how paranoid the Brits are about having electricity anywhere near the water in their bathrooms, pointed out this was probably a “health and safety” hazard, and that “we’ll have someone out in a few days” wasn’t sufficient.

They managed to find someone to come out that very day, he went up on the roof and did a temporary repair, and they painted over the damp plasterboard with an anti-mold paint.

“We’ll schedule a proper repair in the spring.”

I bet you already see where this is going.

Despite multiple building sites in sight of our building remaining active through most of lock-down, no “proper repair” works were scheduled. So yesterday, on the first “real” rainy day of the season, it was hardly surprising that it started raining in the bedroom.

Again.

We’ve got catch basins under the dripping light fixtures in two of the three bedrooms, and are once again invoking the well worn “health and safety” argument. It’s gotten us from “if I don’t have a date from the contractor by Monday I’ll contact an alternate” to “there will be an electrician out today and a roofing contractor out tomorrow morning.”

But getting what seems the obvious right thing to happen has taken far, far too much energy and angst.

And discussing our options and how to respond to this latest crisis has revealed a(nother) fundamental difference in world view between Dawnise and I.

To me, in a business context, you don’t get credit for effort. You get credit for results. Dawnise gives you points for trying.

I think it’s reprehensible that we teach children in the US that they’ll get “partial credit” for incorrect answers. As a teacher, partial credit is often used as an incentive to get students to “show their work.” By rewarding them for “thinking out loud” you have a better chance of understanding where they’re going wrong and correcting them. And that’s good.

But it doesn’t extend to the rest of life.

The property manager and building manager are being responsive, and seem to be trying to engage the right people and processes to solve this problem.

At the end of the day, I don’t care if they’re trying, I care if they’re succeeding.

P.S. The lift is still broken.

Set and Manage Expectations

Some years back (cough c.2001 cough) I was at a startup across a change of senior technical leadership. The CTO, who was and is a friend of mine, left and was replaced by someone chosen by the investors. The replacement was – to be a bit rude – mostly useless. Much more “chief” than “technical officer.”

This fellow – who I only worked with briefly, and who’s name I’ve long since forgotten – ended up imparting something I’ve only recognized the real value of over time.

His “thing” was the importance of setting and managing expectations. Not just for managers, for everyone.

If you were on the hook for something, he was insistent that you tell the dependant party when you expected to deliver. He was downright millitant that as soon as you realized your estimate was wrong – regardless of why it was wrong – you told anyone who was depending on you.

If you couldn’t provide a new estimate, he insisted that you tell them when you would be providing that new estimate (a “date for a date”).

So if you were on the hook to deliver something by Friday, and on the preceeding Tuesday discovered additional work that put Friday at risk – he insisted you approach the party depending on your Friday deliverable on Tuesday and tell them your delivery was at risk. If you could give them a new date for delivery, great (“I think it’s going to take two more days, so I’ll be done next Tuesday”) and if you couldn’t, you needed to tell them when you’d come back with an estimate (“I’m not sure how big a disruption this is, I’ll get back to you by close of business tomorrow.”)

Acting this way gave people who depended on you options. They could look for ways to help you hit your your previous estimate (“if someone helped you with the thing that’s come up would that let us hit Friday?”). They could factor your change into their plans, and inform people who were waiting on them. If necessary, they could look for ways not to dependend on you.

Over time this “proactive transparency” would help the organization get better at estimation, and identify people and teams who weren’t getting better and figure out why and how to improve. Or at least that was the theory. The company ceased being a going concern not too long after.

This may all seem super obvious to anyone who started their career in software “post agile manifesto” but it certainly wasn’t representative of my experience in software up to that point. This was the first overt recognition I’d seen from “management” that plans change, and that how you handle that change is important.

Prior to that, dates were set in stone – and everyone pretended they never changed. (“So long as the bosses pretend to pay us, we will pretend to work.”) There was no accepted way to express that while hitting a target was always desirable, it wasn’t always possible. And by being up front about changes to your expected ability to deliver on commitments you could at least reduce the last minute negative surprise and resulting scramble.

This focus on setting and managing expectations extends far beyond software. I’ve been chasing the building manager about the lift for two days now. She can’t give me anything like an estimate because she doesn’t have one (isn’t demanding one) from the service company. If they had to provide one, they’d have to demand one from whomever they’re waiting on, and so on. It wouldn’t necessarily result in anything being fixed faster* but it just might make it harder to assume that everyone in the chain of responsibility is inept.

* Sometimes the need to tell someone you’re going to let them down incents you to find ways not to let them down, but that’s hard to take to the bank.

Recommended Reading

I ‘ve realized that there are a set of books I’ve been recommending to others pretty consistently since reading them, and a recent spate of doing so made me think to post them here.

The first book on my current “everyone should read this” list is The Righteous Mind, by Jonathan Haidt. I’m unlikely to think about moral decision making and differences of perspective and prioritization the same way after reading it. Early in the book Haidt describes our system for “moral decision making” using the analogy of an elephant and a rider. The elephant – our intuitive decision making system, akin to what Kahneman calls our “fast” system – leans toward things it likes and away from things it doesn’t. The rider – our rational (or “slow”) system, he says, isn’t there to steer the elephant rather to explain the elephant’s actions. So when faced with a moral conundrum we make a decision, then construct post-facto rationalizations in support of that decision. The book goes on to explore how our decisions and rationalizations are shaped by the different weights we place on a set of core “pillars.” Thoughtful and thought provoking through out.

The next book up is shorter, older and a bit harder to find – Albert Hirschman’s Exit, Voice and Loyalty: Responses to Decline in Firms, Organizations, and States. Written in 1970, it remains both relevant and seemingly the definitive writing on the subject. Hirschman argues that when we find ourselves in a relationship with an organization (company, club, country) we come to disagree with, we have only two real tools at our disposal; voice (raising our voice to cause change) and exit (severing our ties with the organization). The book spends its scant pages exploring how we choose to apply those tools in different situations, the impact that loyalty has on our decision making, and how different “ratios” of voice and loyalty affect the organization in question.

Last for the moment is Normal Accidents: Living With High Risk Technologies, by Charles Perrow, first published in 1984 and updated in 2011. Perrow looks at systems in terms of their “interactive complexity” and “coupling.” Interactive complexity is about the number and degree of relationships between parts of a system, and coupling (tight or loose) is about how easy it is for failures in one part of the system to cause cascading failures in other parts. I found the core ideas to be an enlightening lens to look at all sorts of systems through.

It is what it is

As someone utterly incompetent said recently, “it is what it is.”

A month ago, I characterized London as “slowly creeping toward normal.” Today, London has been placed on the COVID “watch list” – which as far as I can tell means Boris and Co. will sit and watch as we cede the gains made in containing the spread of the virus.

It ended up taking just about a month to get my BRP back from the DVLA, and a few days later my provisional driving license arrived. License number in hand, I was able to schedule a theory test. I took the first available, which turned out to be over a month out – the 3rd Monday in October. So I’ve got plenty of time to forget (and review) the material. And, of course, I can’t schedule the practical exam until I’ve passed the theory test. This country could stand to learn a thing or two about pipelining.

Once I had my license, I reached out to a handful of driving instructors. Most of them were either on sabbatical or were fully booked. I ultimately booked an hour with one who was neither. We got on reasonably well, and he was good at pointing out habits (like palm steering) that I’ll need to suppress for the exam. Once I can book a test, I’ll book a test, and he and I will spend another couple lessons in his Kia before I sit it. At this rate, I’ll be lucky to have it done by Christmas.

At his suggestion, I took a couple practice “hazard perception tests.” They show you a video from the point-of-view of a driver, you have to click on the screen when there’s a “developing hazard.” Your score depends on how early you recognize the hazard and react. These tests were clearly not made for motorcyclists. My first attempts I scored nul points – each of my clicks was just before the scoring window opened. Of course that farm equipment traveling parallel to the road is a hazard, waiting for it to turn into my path seems counter-productive. So before taking the test I need to practice reacting later. Somehow that seems very British.

Life has otherwise found a routine. I’ve been running three days a week, though we’ll see how devoted I am as the wet winter starts. Dawnise does the weekly shop and I help her mule it home. With apologies to Casablanca, “she buys the food, I cook the food, we eat the food. It is fairly convenient.” Most weekends we visit our local cafe for brunch, and we read the news from America with a mix of frustration, sadness, fear and resignation.

I’ve continued keeping track of noteworthy COVID-related articles I’ve read, though there have only been a handful in the past month that have made the list. And I’ve posted a few other thoughts that haven’t been about “life in London” and so haven’t been sent to this list.

So I’d say we’re still doing well, overall. We’ve had some rough days, for sure – when it’s been hard to remember we’re both on the same team – but more good days than bad ones.

I’ve started, several times, to write something about the election, or American politics more generally, but each time I’ve tried I end up deleting the draft and walking away. I’m at a total loss about how to have positive impact on any of those issues, but it’s reasonably clear that shouting into the electronic void won’t change anything.

So we’ll vote (absentee, it’s much better than mail in voting). And hope that enough of the country agrees with our perspective to vote with us. And hope that the popular vote carries the day. The whole thing seems dangerously close to the definition of insanity.

Doing the same thing, expecting a different result.